But the issue with prediction markets in the US is that users skew heavily male, under 50, and non-white. They are not reflective of the US of the electorate, or at least those who voted in the 2024 general election.
It would be great if more prediction markets on useful events start getting more liquidity. Maybe you can funnel trading fees from popular-but-useless markets to subsidize political/macro markets. Also many exchanges on blockchains have a variety of market making incentives that can be explored (especially perp DEXes that do a very good job of it). Alternatively, I am working on ways to do that by using counterfactual knowledge across markets - https://virajnadkarni.substack.com/p/two-uses-of-knowledge-in-society
Also would be interesting to consider how concepts like "futarchy" can be used to inform decision making for any organization/firm. That will turn insider trading that is considered toxic into something more positive sum. So it will be in the interest of the organization to subsidize any futarchy markets.
But the issue with prediction markets in the US is that users skew heavily male, under 50, and non-white. They are not reflective of the US of the electorate, or at least those who voted in the 2024 general election.
True! But it’s not clear how important representativeness is when you’re betting on who will win rather than answering a survey
Excited to hear more updates on this!
It would be great if more prediction markets on useful events start getting more liquidity. Maybe you can funnel trading fees from popular-but-useless markets to subsidize political/macro markets. Also many exchanges on blockchains have a variety of market making incentives that can be explored (especially perp DEXes that do a very good job of it). Alternatively, I am working on ways to do that by using counterfactual knowledge across markets - https://virajnadkarni.substack.com/p/two-uses-of-knowledge-in-society
Also would be interesting to consider how concepts like "futarchy" can be used to inform decision making for any organization/firm. That will turn insider trading that is considered toxic into something more positive sum. So it will be in the interest of the organization to subsidize any futarchy markets.